A mere 60 days prior when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery berated him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
Per Opta, in only two games has the team had an xG notably superior than the other team. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, will not continue to drilling his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
